Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.772207 4.138762 4.569730 5.127678 5.854519 6.809760 8.246899
2024-12-29 3.370036 3.837195 4.437560 5.312592 6.662637 8.948632 14.353814
2025-01-05 3.000243 3.471979 4.103243 5.078908 6.733887 10.065611 22.739188
2025-01-12 2.734517 3.194544 3.825127 4.835997 6.663064 10.865873 40.377529
2025-01-19 2.563480 3.020776 3.661774 4.726039 6.778095 12.289633 NaN
2025-01-26 2.494059 2.976402 3.675348 4.900733 7.534275 17.310425 NaN
2025-02-02 2.460434 2.976594 3.752424 5.201557 8.789616 34.790454 NaN
2025-02-09 2.380469 2.900620 3.697944 5.241181 9.415453 84.244371 NaN
2025-02-16 2.315393 2.840758 3.661513 5.307650 10.210201 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.212027 2.715942 3.504810 5.093216 9.876958 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.157126 2.661625 3.462382 5.118402 10.517145 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.100713 2.601362 3.404116 5.097959 10.983224 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.023536 2.507976 3.286661 4.937858 10.769075 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.998353 2.494335 3.307824 5.105508 12.456668 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.924435 2.400102 3.178436 4.890026 11.760767 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.853754 2.308580 3.049709 4.665464 10.948052 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.803856 2.248218 2.973937 4.563513 10.851073 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.791825 2.247094 3.004015 4.725380 12.626382 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.792642 2.266281 3.072482 5.002949 16.345155 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.765886 2.239272 3.052332 5.039400 18.164613 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.743206 2.217899 3.041334 5.100488 20.907355 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.695934 2.154330 2.945743 4.903154 18.844976 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.673015 2.130378 2.925735 4.926370 20.947650 NaN NaN